## 28 Dec 6. Monte Carlo Simulation

MIT 6.0002 Introduction to Computational Thinking and Data Science, Fall 2016

View the complete course: http://ocw.mit.edu/6-0002F16

Instructor: John Guttag

Prof. Guttag discusses the Monte Carlo simulation, Roulette

License: Creative Commons BY-NC-SA

More information at http://ocw.mit.edu/terms

More courses at http://ocw.mit.edu

## Kirill Bezzubkine

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberThis man is really good at explaining the sense. There were no crazy sets of symbols though i got the essence of his explanation. The only downside of this is that it s NOT about monte carlo but more about some basic assumptions lying at the base of Monte Carlo

## Steve Almond

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberHello, thank you for your lecture on Monte Carlo. I have a question, I don’t understand why it is better to run the simulation rather than just use the mean? For the roulette example, we’re providing the code the 1/36 probability and using a simulation to show that well win 1/36 times. But of course we know that already, and so why run the simulation? My question related to why I’m researching Monte Carlo. I have a real world problem where I am trying to forecast unplanned shutdowns for machinery. I have a detailed history of unplanned shutdowns for the past 10 years. Say I have 1005 machines and I have on average 7 breakdowns per month. Can I use Monte Carlo to forecast how many machines will breakdown per month going forward? Or should I just assume I’ll have 7 breakdowns per month? What would be the benefit of each? I’m happy to self learn, I’m hoping someone can point me in the right direction. Thank yoy

## Wentao Qiu

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberOk, he is really good 33:45, how I hoped to have a prof. like him back in college.

## Dobariya Hardik

Posted at 08:25h, 28 Decemberthanks, sir your lecture helps me allot

## Sachin Dolta

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberHere after reading Fooled by randomness by nasim taleb 🙂

## ApiolJoe

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberProbability of getting 26 reds in a row is 1 / 67 108 865 when p = 1/2 doesn't really seem possible, the denominator isn't even a multiple of 2 😛

I guess the above probability was calculated with the real odds of a roulette and not those of a fair one.

## Jordan Smith

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberGood lecture overall but there is a bug in the code at 14:32 and 15:25 — playRoulette should instead print 100 * totPocket / (numSpins * bet).

The output in his example only looks correct because `bet` is 1. If `bet` were 2 and `numSpins` were 1, it either prints "-200%" or "7200%" (obviously you can't lose more than 100% or win more than 3600%).

## Zuheyr Alsalihi

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberBut this does not have anything at all with the MC method

….

## Masihullah Hasanyar

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberThe state of idiots putting dislike for MIT content 🤣🤣🤣

## Masihullah Hasanyar

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberThe state of idiots putting dislike for MIT content 🤣🤣🤣

## William Mohr

Posted at 08:25h, 28 December23:33 this should be corrected to –> if the parents are shorter than average, the children are likely to be taller than the parents ( not taller than average).

## Lindsey Xiao

Posted at 08:25h, 28 December1.25 speed

## Abhishek Jaisingh

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberThe best way to explain variance formula! <3

## Nas

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberThanks. It did help!

## KingArthurVIII

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberThe failed slingshot attempt made the prof 300% more likable that he already was to begin with.

## salman ahmed

Posted at 08:25h, 28 Decemberawesome

## addi wei

Posted at 08:25h, 28 December49:00 likelihood not equal probability

## addi wei

Posted at 08:25h, 28 December20:20 if the baseball hitter hit with a probability > .5 then of course it is probable he will hit one per each attempt

## Petter Hemnes

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberGreat professor! A slight hiccup on 23:38; I believe he meant to say if the parents are both shorter than average it is likely that the child will be taller than their parents (not average).

## Kenneth Mak

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberThank you, Prof. Guttag!

## Anton Mochalin

Posted at 08:25h, 28 December"A million is getting close to infinite" 😂

## aem0117

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberGood lecture, but I was expecting more Monte Carlo (Latin Hypercube, …) than elementary statistics.

## Joe Donzi

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberRoulette is not about spins , roulette is about being somewhere . This professor has obviously never actually been anywhere , never experienced anything. sorry , imho !

## txlish

Posted at 08:25h, 28 Decemberoh, bring me back to Dr S.C. Arora , faculty of Mathematics from HansRaj College, Univ of Delhi lectures from '78, '79 -:)

## apiwat tiger

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberOh my god. In my country there are none of teacher like this

## ChannalMath

Posted at 08:25h, 28 Decemberlol! 33:50

THAT's how you teach intelligent but sleep-deprived teenagers!

## Lakshmi yes

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberI still don't get how regression to means is consistent with the independence of events. Isn't the fact that the first 10 spins resulted in red (extreme) affect the next 10 spins (make it less likely to be as extreme)? Can someone pls explain that?

## Kosteri x

Posted at 08:25h, 28 Decemberwhat a stupid video. It doesnt even use monte carlo.

## ian park

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberTruly a great professor.. we need more teachers and professors like him.

## Nour Sayed

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberNot what I was looking for, however very interesting and useful video, I will see more, thanks

## G Kess

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberZoom out and quit trying to follow him as he paces. Thanks.

## Trigz WoW Classic

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberCheck out my free advanced risk monte carlo simulator. Coded it by myself, would love to hear what you think: niclashummel.com/risk-simulator

## Connor Rowe

Posted at 08:25h, 28 Decembergreat video on statistics but i thought this was going to teach monte carlo simulations

## mithil kulkarni

Posted at 08:25h, 28 DecemberVery good teacher..

## M K

Posted at 08:25h, 28 Decemberdo they get candy whenever they ask question? lol